By Brazil Stock Guide — BTG Pactual expects Brazil’s commodities companies to deliver a weak second-quarter earnings season, with revenue growth constrained by flat commodity prices, softer volumes and the appreciation of the real. The bank sees cost inflation as the central theme of the quarter, especially for exporters exposed to oil, diesel and freight costs.
The clearest exception is steel. In a preview published Tuesday, BTG said Brazilian steelmakers should be the positive highlight of the quarter, supported by stronger pricing power and higher volumes. Gerdau stands out as the bank’s preferred defensive name, helped by steel-price increases in Mexico, Brazil and the US.
“Gerdau is our preferred name,” BTG analysts Leonardo Correa, Marcelo Arazi, Rodrigo Gotardo and Marcel Zambello wrote in the report. The bank expects the company to post sequential EBITDA growth, backed by another strong quarter in North America and a slightly better environment in Brazil.
BTG forecasts Gerdau’s EBITDA at R$3.26 billion in 2Q26, up 10% from the previous quarter and 27% from a year earlier. Net income is expected at R$1.55 billion, compared with R$1.01 billion in 1Q26 and R$865 million in 2Q25.
Usiminas is also listed among the positive highlights. BTG expects its EBITDA to reach R$716 million, up 10% quarter-on-quarter and 75% year-on-year, despite a 7% annual decline in revenue.
The negative side of the quarter is expected to come from iron ore, pulp and gold producers. BTG lists Suzano, Vale, Aura, CSN and CSN Mineração among the expected laggards.
Vale is forecast to report a weak quarter despite higher iron ore sales volumes. BTG expects EBITDA, excluding Brumadinho effects, of US$3.83 billion, down 2% from 1Q26 but still up 12% year-on-year. The pressure comes mainly from higher C1 cash costs in iron ore, driven by exogenous factors and lower fixed-cost dilution. The bank says those pressures should largely reverse in coming quarters, but remain a short-term headwind.
CSN Mineração looks more exposed. BTG expects its EBITDA to fall 29% quarter-on-quarter and 20% year-on-year to R$1.02 billion, even with revenue up 15% sequentially. The drag comes from stronger cost inflation and the company’s higher exposure to spot freight rates.
Freight is one of the main numbers in the report. BTG estimates Brazil-China freight costs rose 36% quarter-on-quarter and 60% year-on-year, to US$33.70 per dry metric ton. The stronger real adds pressure: the average dollar/real rate fell 4% from the previous quarter and 11% from a year earlier, to R$5.05.
In pulp and paper, Suzano is expected to face pressure from lower volumes, the stronger real and higher maintenance-related costs. BTG forecasts Suzano’s EBITDA at R$4.62 billion, nearly flat from 1Q26 but down 24% from a year earlier. Revenue is expected to fall 13% year-on-year to R$11.51 billion, even with realized export pulp prices up 7% quarter-on-quarter.
Klabin and Irani are the brighter spots in the paper and packaging universe. BTG expects both to benefit from a more favorable corrugated packaging environment. Klabin’s EBITDA is forecast to rise 20% quarter-on-quarter to R$2.01 billion, while Irani’s EBITDA is expected to rise 18% to R$133 million.
Gold producers should face weaker sequential results as realized gold prices fell 7% quarter-on-quarter, according to BTG. Aura’s EBITDA is expected to drop 17% from 1Q26 to US$202 million, though still up 90% from a year earlier.
Copper producers should fare better, helped by a 4% sequential increase in copper prices. BTG’s broader commodities table shows copper up 40% year-on-year, while aluminum rose 11% quarter-on-quarter and 45% year-on-year. Iron ore prices were broadly stable sequentially, rising just 1% quarter-on-quarter, though still up 7% from a year earlier.
For investors, the message is that 2Q26 may reward pricing power and domestic steel exposure more than pure commodity beta. Gerdau’s mix of North American resilience, Mexican pricing and improving Brazilian steel prices gives it a defensive profile in a quarter where the broader commodities complex is dealing with cost pressure, freight inflation and currency headwinds.