By Brazil Stock Guide – Hedgepoint Global Markets released its first forecast for Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee crop, projecting total output between 71.0 million and 74.4 million 60-kg bags. The estimate signals a sharp rebound in arabica production after last season’s shortfall, while conilon volumes remain high despite easing from a record cycle. If confirmed, the crop would help ease pressure on global coffee stocks that remain near historically tight levels.
Arabica output is initially forecast at 46.5 million to 49.0 million bags, up from 37.7 million in 2025/26, an increase of 23.3% to 30.0%. Hedgepoint attributes the gain to a positive biennial cycle across several regions, expanded planted area and improved crop management, supported by more favorable weather from mid-October onward. Conilon production is estimated at 24.6 million to 25.4 million bags, down 5.9% to 8.9% from the exceptional 27.0 million bags harvested in the previous season.
Weather Shifts the Outlook
Dry conditions from August through early October delayed flowering and damaged early blooms in parts of the arabica belt. More consistent rainfall returned from mid-October, triggering a second flowering and restoring yield potential for the 2026/27 crop. In conilon regions, steady precipitation and healthy reservoir levels in Espírito Santo and Bahia supported flowering and grain filling.
“There has been an increase in pruning in areas with damaged plants that were not pruned last season due to high prices,” says Laleska Moda, coffee analyst at Hedgepoint Global Markets. “At the same time, investment in new areas continues, with results that should become more visible in the coming years.”
Stocks and Volatility Ahead
The combination of a stronger arabica crop and still-elevated conilon output should contribute to rebuilding global coffee inventories in 2026/27. Even so, Hedgepoint expects markets to remain sensitive during the grain-filling stage from December through March, a critical period for defining final yields. More accurate revisions are expected between March and April, once processing yields can be assessed.
From a pricing perspective, expectations of higher Brazilian supply have weighed on sentiment, reinforced by the removal of most US tariffs on Brazilian coffee. Still, tight inventories in consuming countries and weaker Brazilian exports in the near term could provide support. Until the crop is secured, weather in Brazil is likely to remain the main trigger for volatility, creating potential windows of price swings and trading opportunities.