By Brazil Stock Guide – Ultrapar Participações SA (UGPA3) is expected to report EBITDA of around R$1.7 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025, supported by resilient margins at Ipiranga and a release of working capital, according to BTG Pactual.
BTG estimates free cash flow generation of roughly R$1.2 billion in the period, largely driven by working capital reduction at Ipiranga. That should allow the company to absorb dividend payments of about R$1 billion during the quarter while keeping leverage broadly stable at around 1.7 times net debt to EBITDA.
At Ipiranga, BTG expects margins slightly above management’s prior guidance, with EBITDA per cubic meter seen at about R$157 and volumes rising around 6% year on year, translating into EBITDA of roughly R$993 million.
BTG said Ipiranga benefited from the so-called “parachute effect,” which helped mitigate the impact from Petrobras gasoline price reductions, while also capturing volumes in the void left by Refit in the gasoline market during the quarter.
The bank also pointed to cash-flow tailwinds from a higher mix of imported fuel — which carries longer payment terms — and calendar effects on payments to Petrobras, with some disbursements expected to slip into the first quarter.
At Ultragaz, BTG expects EBITDA margins of around R$1,100 per ton, reflecting the annual inflation passthrough implemented in the third quarter. Volumes are seen declining about 2.5% year on year, but EBITDA is expected at roughly R$470 million.
Ultracargo is expected to post broadly flat EBITDA of about R$144 million from a year earlier, supported by additional capacity at the Santos terminal and improved asset turnover. Hidrovias do Brasil should report stronger figures, with BTG forecasting net revenues of around R$325 million and EBITDA of about R$133 million as operating conditions normalize.
BTG reiterated its positive view on Ultrapar, citing its diversified portfolio, controlled leverage and potential growth avenues, and said the stock remains its preferred exposure to fuel distribution in Brazil.