Global markets are bracing for turbulence as U.S. President Donald Trump’s ultimatum to Iran nears expiration. Trump has threatened to launch strikes against Iranian civilian infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened by 8:00 p.m. EST tonight, a move experts warn would constitute war crimes under international law. The standoff has overshadowed otherwise resilient market data and earnings releases around the globe.
Samsung Electronics posted results well above expectations, with booming chip sales offsetting concerns over escalating Middle East tensions. The company’s quarterly outperformance reinforced investor optimism that resilient demand for semiconductors could cushion Asia’s tech sector from geopolitical shocks.
Asian markets largely shrugged off war chatter, closing mostly flat, while European equities rose 1% as investors focused on improving macro data rather than geopolitical threats.
Fresh Purchasing Managers’ Index figures released this morning signal that Europe’s economy may be close to bottoming out.
- Eurozone composite PMI: 49.7 (vs. 49.2 in March)
- Manufacturing PMI: 47.1 — the highest since mid‑2024, supported by easing supply bottlenecks
- Services PMI: 51.6 — continued expansion on tourism and business services
- Germany composite PMI: 48.9 — slowest contraction in nine months
- France composite PMI: 49.3 — soft domestic demand weighing on sentiment
Markets were muted following the release, with bond yields steady and the euro hovering near $1.08. Most regional traders are still returning from the Easter break, limiting liquidity.
The UK private sector was flat in March amid persistent stagflation fears, while German power prices turned negative early this week on weak demand paired with surging renewable generation.
U.S. futures were marginally higher in early trade, suggesting traders still hold out hope for a late diplomatic compromise. Brent crude slipped 1.5% to $108 a barrel, retreating after last week’s rally.
Investors now face a precarious mix: an improving economic backdrop in Europe, strong corporate earnings in Asia, and intensifying geopolitical risk in the Middle East — a combination that could define the tone of global markets through the week.