By Brazil Stock Guide – B3 (B3SA3) ended 2025 with clearer signs of operational improvement after releasing December figures that reinforced a more favorable short-term momentum, according to a report by BTG Pactual. Average daily trading volume (ADTV) in equities reached R$30.5 billion in the month, above November levels, while average daily revenue rose to R$11.1 million, despite still posting a 17% year-on-year decline. The figures have improved visibility for the exchange operator’s fourth-quarter results.
The improvement was underpinned by a gradual recovery in business lines less dependent on equity trading. In the over-the-counter segment, registration volumes rose 25% month on month and 4% from a year earlier, driven mainly by bank funding instruments such as certificates of deposit and debentures. Assets under custody increased 1% on the month and 4% year on year, while the number of financed vehicles grew 9% sequentially, lifting the contribution of recurring revenues to B3’s overall revenue mix.
According to BTG, recent conversations with investors in Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo revealed a marginally more constructive view on B3 than on XP at this point in the cycle. That relative preference reflects B3’s more resilient margins and the growing relevance of businesses such as fixed income, data, technology and services, compared with business models more exposed to capital-markets volatility.
For the quarter as a whole, BTG estimates that ADTV ran about 18% above its forecasts, leading to expectations that fourth-quarter revenue will come in roughly 5% above market consensus. While 2026 is still unlikely to mark a strong rebound in equity trading volumes, the bank argues that activity has found a clearer floor and that a more meaningful recovery is likely to take shape in 2027, leaving room for upside beyond what is currently priced into analyst models.