By Brazil Stock Guide – Brazil’s grain output for the 2024/25 season is set to reach a record 350.2 million metric tons, according to the latest survey released Thursday by the state-run supply agency Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (Conab). The figure represents a 16.3% increase compared with the previous cycle, driven by expanded planting and favorable weather conditions across the main producing regions.
The cultivated area rose by 1.9 million hectares to 81.7 million hectares, with the country’s agricultural heartland in the Center-West benefiting from well-distributed rainfall. Soybeans, Brazil’s top crop, are projected at 171.5 million tons, up 13.3% from last year. Productivity reached a record 3,621 kilograms per hectare, with Goiás showing the best yields at 4,183 kg/ha. In contrast, parts of Rio Grande do Sul faced high temperatures and irregular rains, producing just 2,342 kg/ha.
Corn also hit unprecedented levels, with total output expected at 139.7 million tons, a 20.9% jump from the previous cycle. The second crop, which accounts for the bulk of production, should reach 112 million tons, up 24.4%. Conab estimates that soybean exports will total 106.65 million tons this season, while domestic crushing is projected at 57 million tons.
Cotton lint production is forecast at 4.1 million tons, an increase of 9.7% supported by favorable weather and expanded planting. Rice output reached 12.8 million tons, up 20.6%, largely on the back of recovery in Rio Grande do Sul. Bean production, however, is expected to decline by 3.9% to 3.1 million tons, though Conab notes this remains enough to supply the domestic market.
Among winter crops, wheat is forecast at 7.5 million tons, a 4.5% drop due to a 19.9% reduction in planted area. Other crops showed mixed performance: sorghum harvest in Goiás was nearly complete, sesame expanded in Mato Grosso and Tocantins, sunflower in Goiás yielded 1,579 kg/ha, while castor bean in Bahia suffered from drought, although irrigated areas performed better.
Ocean monitoring suggests cooling in the equatorial Pacific, signaling potential La Niña conditions in the coming months. Conab projects soybean ending stocks at 9.3 million tons and corn at 12.8 million tons.
Brazil is the world’s largest exporter of soybeans, a crop critical to global supply chains and companies such as Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM), Bunge Global SA (BG), and Cargill.