By Brazil Stock Guide – BTG Pactual and XP Investimentos released updated research on Hidrovias do Brasil SA (HBSA3) on Tuesday, underscoring a turning point for the logistics operator after a turbulent 2024. Both banks see 2025 as the start of a new phase, marked by sharp deleveraging, tighter capital discipline, and modular expansion projects in the Northern Corridor.
Ultrapar SA (UGPA3) took control of HBSA in 2025 with a R$1.2 billion capital increase, lifting its stake to 55% and driving strategic changes, including the sale of the cabotage unit for R$715 million. Governance was also reshaped: Décio Amaral, a veteran executive at Ultrapar, replaced Fabio Schettino as CEO in June, while most board and executive seats are now filled by Ultrapar appointees, aligning strategy with long-term shareholder interests.
XP forecasts that HBSA’s net debt-to-EBITDA ratio will fall from 7.5x in 2024 to 2.7x in 2025, supported by stronger operating results and a firmer real. BTG projects an even sharper decline to 1.9x in 2026. The company has also slashed its dollar-denominated debt from 83% to 23% in just two quarters, while extending maturities and lowering average borrowing costs.
Growth will rely on modular investments with limited capital intensity. HBSA is developing a floating tipping crane at its Miritituba transshipment terminal, a R$94 million project slated for completion in 2H26, and a floating crane at its Barcarena terminal, a R$80 million project expected in 1H26. Each will add capacity of 1.5 million tons per year. The “Dobra TUP” expansion, still in licensing, would double Barcarena’s export capacity.
In the Southern Corridor, dredging works in partnership with the Brazilian and Paraguayan governments are already improving navigability and reducing hydrological risks. XP estimates EBITDA in the region will surge 42% in 2025.
BTG expects HBSA to post net revenue of R$2.2 billion in 2025 and R$2.3 billion in 2026, with EBITDA of R$981 million and R$1.1 billion, respectively. XP lifted its projections for the Northern Corridor from 2027 onward, factoring in modular capacity gains. Despite a 90%-plus rally in HBSA shares this year, both banks maintain a buy recommendation, with BTG setting a target price of R$4.50 by 2026 and XP at R$4.20.