By Brazil Stock Guide – The United States’ proposed 25% tariff on Brazilian imports may be far less disruptive to Brazil’s export sector than the headline figure suggests.
A review of Brazilian trade data shows that products accounting for roughly $6 billion, or about 55% of Brazil’s exports to the United States so far in 2026, appear to be exempt from the proposed tariff or already covered by separate U.S. trade regimes.
The finding highlights a key detail buried in the Office of the United States Trade Representative’s Section 301 proposal: while Washington is threatening broad tariff action against Brazil, it has largely shielded many of the commodities and industrial inputs that form the backbone of bilateral trade.
The numbers
Brazil exported approximately $10.9 billion to the United States through June 2, according to Secex data reviewed by Brazil Stock Guide.
Among the largest export categories that appear exempt or carved out are:
- Semi-finished iron and steel products: $1.0 billion
- Crude oil: $857 million
- Beef: $815 million
- Aircraft and parts: $768 million
- Pig iron and ferroalloys: $594 million
- Petroleum fuel oils: $565 million
- Green coffee: $513 million
- Fruit and vegetable juices: $289 million
- Aluminum: $191 million
- Alumina: $125 million
- Iron ore: $122 million
Together, those categories represent a substantial portion of Brazil’s export flow to the American market.
The estimate is indicative rather than a formal customs calculation because Brazilian export statistics are reported under Secex classifications, while the USTR exemptions are defined using U.S. tariff codes. Even so, the overall picture is clear: the proposed tariff would not hit all sectors equally.
Why Washington carved them out
The USTR proposal excludes products listed in a lengthy annex, goods already subject to Section 232 tariffs, informational materials, donations and accompanied baggage. The agency also said some products were excluded because tariffs could create supply shortages, disrupt the broader U.S. economy or affect goods that cannot be sourced in sufficient quantities elsewhere.
That logic helps explain why many of Brazil’s largest exports remain outside the scope of the proposed measure.
Most of the spared products are either raw materials, commodities or industrial inputs that are important to American supply chains. Oil feeds U.S. refineries. Steel inputs support manufacturing. Coffee, orange juice and beef are staples for American consumers. Aircraft and components are integrated into global aerospace supply chains.
Pressure, not rupture
The exemption list suggests the proposal is designed less to disrupt trade and more to increase pressure on Brasília.
The USTR’s investigation focused on issues ranging from digital regulation and the Pix payment system to anti-corruption enforcement, intellectual property protection, ethanol market access and illegal deforestation. Rather than targeting the products most responsible for Brazil’s export earnings, Washington appears to be preserving many of the trade flows that matter most to both economies.
That leaves a larger share of the tariff burden likely falling on industrial products, chemicals, manufactured goods and other categories that do not benefit from explicit exemptions.
A narrower impact than the headline implies
The proposed 25% tariff remains subject to public consultation and has not yet been implemented. Written comments are due by July 1, and a public hearing is scheduled for July 6. But the exemption list already reveals an important reality: despite the aggressive rhetoric surrounding the proposal, much of Brazil’s export engine appears to have been left untouched.
Read more: Impact of U.S. Tariffs on Brazil’s Trade Policies Explained