By Brazil Stock Guide – Brazil’s industrial federation Firjan has warned that new tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump risk derailing $39 billion (R$198.2 billion) in potential investments in Rio de Janeiro between 2025 and 2027. The assessment was first reported by Valor Econômico.
According to Firjan’s “Investment Outlook 2025-2027,” the state is set to receive $66 billion (R$336 billion) in confirmed projects across 1,119 ventures, with energy and infrastructure leading the pipeline. Yet 90 other projects, considered “potential,” could be put on hold due to the tariff hike.
Tariffs Hit Brazilian Exports
The United States raised import tariffs in July, with Brazil and India facing the steepest hikes — 50% on a range of exports. Firjan President Luiz Césio Caetano said the move threatens investor confidence.
“Our commitment is to fight so that these investments happen, so that there is a favorable business environment in infrastructure, human capacity and efficient management,” Caetano said. “But we are concerned about the increase in tariffs on exports, which affects Rio de Janeiro.”
Initial calculations by Firjan show the new tariffs could cut Rio’s exports by 2%, about $198 million, jeopardizing 2,200 jobs. Caetano noted that indirect effects on supply chains and logistics are still unclear.
State Government Response
Caetano said Firjan has delivered its initial estimates to the Rio state government, which created a working group to assess the impact. “We still don’t have a state position. It would be important for the government to show how it can support these companies in the face of the threat of job losses,” he said.
In a statement, the Rio de Janeiro government confirmed that AgeRio, the state development agency, is preparing an investment package to mitigate the effects of the tariffs.
Energy Sector Dominates Pipeline
Energy remains Rio’s biggest draw for capital, accounting for nearly 80% of total confirmed investments, or $52 billion (R$267.8 billion). Oil and gas — including projects linked to Petrobras (BVMF:PETR3, BVMF:PETR4; NYSE:PBR) — represent $50 billion (R$258.5 billion) of that sum. Infrastructure ranks second, with $4.8 billion (R$24.5 billion).
Investments will be spread across the state: $3 billion (R$15.5 billion) in the capital, $2.6 billion (R$13.1 billion) in the South Fluminense region, and $1.3 billion (R$6.5 billion) in the Baixada Fluminense. Other areas, including the north and central regions, will see smaller but still relevant allocations.