By Brazil Stock Guide – Raia Drogasil (RDOR3) was upgraded to Buy by XP Investimentos, as the structural advance of GLP-1 drugs, a reset in personal care strategy and a new earnings expansion cycle reshape the company’s growth outlook. The bank set a end-2026 price target of R$31 per share, or about $6.30, with net profit now seen 5% above consensus for 2025–26.
XP estimates GLP-1 drugs accounted for around 30% of RD’s incremental retail sales in 2025, up from 14% in 2024. Including future semaglutide generics, the addressable market could reach about R$30 billion ($6.1 billion), compared with R$10 billion ($2.0 billion) expected for 2025 with branded products only. November import data already point to short-term acceleration.
According to XP, GLP-1 has become the core growth engine of RD’s 2025 story and should sustain multi-year expansion. The bank revised its model to include generic entry from 2027, projecting GLP-1 to represent mid-teens share of retail sales by 2028.
RD has also overhauled its personal care strategy amid aggressive competition from digital marketplaces. The company is focusing on sharper pricing, broader assortment and a stronger value proposition anchored in private labels and a new store format, supported by closer industry relationships.
XP sees room for a return to historical valuation levels, with the stock trading back to the low-30s earnings multiple, backed by double-digit revenue growth and a three-year earnings-per-share CAGR of 26%. The arrival of GLP-1 generics adds further upside that remains only partially priced in.