By Brazil Stock Guide – Brazil’s Tourism Ministry said Wednesday (18) that Carnival 2026 is expected to generate R$18.6 billion ($3.7 billion) in economic activity nationwide, a 10% increase compared with 2025. The estimate marks the strongest February performance since the historical series began in 2011.
According to figures released by the ministry, the projection is based on data from the National Confederation of Commerce in Goods, Services and Tourism (CNC) and FecomercioSP. Officials expect more than 65 million people to take part in festivities across the country, a 22% rise from the same period last year.
Tourism Minister Gustavo Feliciano said the outlook reflects record participation and spending levels. “We are celebrating one of the largest and best carnivals in history, with record expectations for revelers and financial activity, which shows how tourism contributes to Brazil’s economic and social growth,” he said.
Five major destinations — Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Recife, Olinda and Salvador — accounted for 32 million participants. São Paulo led attendance with 16.5 million people and an economic impact exceeding R$7 billion. Rio de Janeiro attracted 8 million revelers, generating about R$5.7 billion, while hotel occupancy rates reached 98%.
In the Northeast, the Recife/Olinda hub gathered more than 7.6 million participants and generated R$3.2 billion. State authorities also projected a 49% increase in international tourist arrivals. Salvador hosted over 8 million participants, with an estimated R$2 billion impact on the local economy.